Mr Evans is not the only one predicting an increase.  Investment banks UBS and Citigroup both changed their recommendations on March 21 to tip an April interest rate increase of 0.25 per cent.  Scott Murdoch said in an article in The Australian March 22 "The 30-day futures market has put the likelihood at 44 per cent for April and 100 per cent by the end of the year."  UBS has rated the likelihood of an April rate rise at 50 percent.

Just a few weeks ago the prospect of an April increase was virtually nil.  Stronger economic data, particularly the recent GDP figures and a speech by the reserve bank assistant governor for economics Malcolm Edey have alerted analysts to the potential rise.  Scott Haslem an economist for UBS said that the Reserve Bank would move interest rates in the light of the stronger economic data, particularly the GDP figures.

While many analysts agree that a rate rise is coming some are saying the Reserve Bank may wait until May and shift rates before the release of the federal government's budget.  This would also give the Reserve Bank more time to view the effects of the previous 3 increases as well as examine inflation.  Citigroup economist Stephen Halmarick said that the Reserve Bank would examine the likely inflation outlook.  Citigroup has reported that inflation is likely to be 2.75% for the remainder of the year.  This is at the higher end of acceptable to the Reserve Bank and gives indication that a rate rise is far more likely than a rate cut.